What happened
A handful of economies — the US, China, the euro area, Japan and India — drive the bulk of global demand, and their PMIs, GDP prints and stimulus set the world business cycle. The IMF, OECD and national statistics offices publish the primary data.
Why it matters
The characteristic shock for this scope is a synchronized demand slowdown: when the big engines decelerate together, cyclical equities, emerging markets and industrial commodities fall while defensives and havens hold up. China is the key downside swing factor for global commodities.
Exposed assets
| Ticker | Direction | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| SPY | ▼ | US demand anchors global earnings; a slowdown hits broadly |
| FXI | ▼ | China is the key downside swing for global growth |
| EEM | ▼ | emerging markets are cyclically geared to global demand |
| GLD | ▲ | haven and rate-cut expectations bid bullion |
What to watch
- •IMF World Economic Outlook and OECD projections
- •US / China / euro-area / Japan PMIs
- •China credit-impulse and stimulus signals
- •Global manufacturing new-orders trend
Sources
- 1.IMF — World Economic Outlook
- 2.OECD
- 3.Reuters