The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed following US and Israeli strikes on Iran, disrupting roughly 14m b/d of the ~20m b/d that normally transits it.¹
Why it matters
- •Hormuz carries ~20% of global seaborne oil — this is a direct supply removal, not a demand story, keeping a floor under Brent above $100/bbl.¹
- •The EIA's June outlook sees Brent averaging ~$105/bbl in June–July, easing toward ~$89/bbl by Q4 2026 only on an assumed transit resumption.¹
- •OECD inventories are drawing toward their lowest since 2003, and the energy-price impulse is now driving central-bank policy and safe-haven flows worldwide.²
Exposed assets
Citations
- 1.EIA — Short-Term Energy Outlook · Jun 2026
- 2.ING Research · Jun 2026
- 3.Brookings · Jun 2026
Limitations · Assumes the strait stays shut near-term; a US–Iran ceasefire or the EIA-assumed Q3 2026 transit resumption would unwind the supply premium quickly.
as of 06:00 UTC