Public stamp registry
Every claim here was hashed and committed before its outcome existed, against a resolution source named at the moment of issue.
Append-only, and open to anyone. Corrections append a new stamp pointing at the old one — nothing is overwritten, so misses stay visible permanently. Third parties may stamp here too: a registry is only evidence when it is not the private property of the party being judged.
Stamps committed
3
Awaiting resolution
3
Resolved
0
Restatements
0
Calibration by domain
Freight—0 resolved
Markets—0 resolved
A Brier score publishes per domain once 50 stamps have resolved there. Below that the number would be noise, so we show the count instead — and we will publish the score whatever it says.
| Claim | Prob. | Committed | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
The ECB announces a reduction of ≥10bps in its deposit facility rate at its September 2026 monetary policy meeting (official ECB press release). Resolves by 2026-09-10 · The ECB announces a reduction of ≥10bps in its deposit facility rate at its September 2026 monetary policy meeting (official ECB press release). | 0.18 | Aug 5, 2026 | Open |
LME 3-month copper official closing price on the final trading day of 2026 is at or above $11,000/tonne. Resolves by 2026-12-31 · LME 3-month copper official closing price on the final trading day of 2026 is at or above $11,000/tonne. | 0.42 | Aug 5, 2026 | Open |
Baltic Dry Index closes above 2,300 on at least one session before 15 Aug 2026 Resolves by 2026-08-15 · Baltic Exchange daily BDI print (as republished by TradingEconomics if primary unavailable) | 0.55 | Jul 29, 2026 | Open |
Verify a stamp
no account neededCommitment chain
- latest root
- dbd5f0…a09f
- anchored
- 2026-07-29T17:25:00Z
- snapshot
- 2026-07-29T17:30:00Z
- restatements
- 0
Each stamp hashes its claim, probability, horizon, model version, named resolver and every source with its retrieval time. Daily roots are published; this snapshot is committed to git, so its history is a second independent witness.
Stamps are commitments, not advice · Track record · Methodology · Terms